Prediction Analysis

Closed Trades

Win Rate

51.95%

Realized P/L

+$362.56

Profit Factor

1.21

Time of Day Analysis

Performance is grouped by the time the prediction was opened, using regular U.S. market hours.

Market Open

09:30–10:30

Trades

Win Rate

45.71%

Total P/L

-$131.74

Avg P/L

-$3.76

Avg Confidence

78.9

Wins / Losses

16 / 19

Performance is mixed. Keep prediction.min_confidence, prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent stable until more trades accumulate.

Late Morning

10:30–12:00

Trades

Win Rate

61.11%

Total P/L

+$611.79

Avg P/L

+$16.99

Avg Confidence

78.5

Wins / Losses

22 / 14

Performance is mixed. Keep prediction.min_confidence, prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent stable until more trades accumulate.

Midday

12:00–14:00

Trades

Win Rate

40%

Total P/L

-$38.32

Avg P/L

-$7.66

Avg Confidence

78.5

Wins / Losses

2 / 3

Consider tightening prediction.min_confidence for signals in this period. For morning weakness specifically, review early_detection.morning_prominence_factor, early_detection.morning_swing_factor, early_detection.morning_distance_factor, early_detection.morning_wedge_r2_factor and early_detection.morning_wedge_convergence_factor.

Afternoon

14:00–16:00

Trades

Win Rate

Total P/L

-$79.17

Avg P/L

-$79.17

Avg Confidence

88.7

Wins / Losses

0 / 1

Pattern Performance

Each trade is credited to every pattern that participated in the original prediction. Parameter names in the tuning suggestions are clickable and open the Parameters page.

Pattern	Trades	Wins	Win Rate	Total P/L	Avg P/L	Avg Confidence	Suggested Tuning
Falling wedge	33	19	57.58%	+$284.75	+$8.63	78.4	Tune falling_wedge.min_points_per_side: increase it to require more confirmed swing points. Tune falling_wedge.min_r2: raise it to require cleaner converging trend lines. Tune falling_wedge.min_convergence_percent: raise it to demand stronger convergence. Tune falling_wedge.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to require a fresher pattern. Tune pattern_reliability.falling_wedge to change its base confidence.
Bear flag	16	9	56.25%	+$100.87	+$6.30	80.1	Tune bear_flag.min_impulse_percent: raise it to require a stronger initial bearish move. Tune bear_flag.max_flag_retrace_percent: lower it to reject excessive counter-trend rebounds. Tune bear_flag.min_flag_slope_percent: raise it to require a clearer upward-sloping consolidation. Tune bear_flag.min_r2: raise it to require a cleaner flag channel. Tune bear_flag.impulse_lookback and bear_flag.flag_lookback to change the formation horizon. Tune pattern_reliability.bear_flag to change its base confidence.
Double top	12	5	41.67%	-$3.53	-$0.29	78.5	Low win rate: first review prediction.min_confidence. Raising it will reduce marginal trades across all patterns. Tune double_top.max_top_difference_percent: lower it to require more similar highs. Tune double_top.min_pullback_percent: raise it to require a deeper valley between the two tops. Tune double_top.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to require the second top to occur closer to the current bar. Tune pattern_reliability.double_top to change the base confidence assigned to this pattern. If poor trades tend to occur on weak volume, review volume_gate.low_volume_z and volume_gate.max_confidence_boost. If entries are directionally correct but exits are poor, review prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent before changing the pattern detector.
Bull flag	6	1	16.67%	-$160.81	-$26.80	78.2	Low win rate: first review prediction.min_confidence. Raising it will reduce marginal trades across all patterns. Tune bull_flag.min_impulse_percent: raise it to require a stronger initial bullish move. Tune bull_flag.max_flag_retrace_percent: lower it to reject flags that retrace too much of the impulse. Tune bull_flag.min_flag_slope_percent: raise it to require a more clearly downward-sloping consolidation. Tune bull_flag.min_r2: raise it to require a cleaner flag channel. Tune bull_flag.impulse_lookback and bull_flag.flag_lookback to change the time horizon used to form the pattern. Tune pattern_reliability.bull_flag to change its base confidence. If poor trades tend to occur on weak volume, review volume_gate.low_volume_z and volume_gate.max_confidence_boost. If entries are directionally correct but exits are poor, review prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent before changing the pattern detector.
Descending triangle	5	4	80%	+$178.63	+$35.73	77.8	Strong results: if you want more trades, cautiously lower prediction.min_confidence or slightly relax this pattern’s structural thresholds. Tune descending_triangle.max_flat_slope_percent: lower it to require flatter support. Tune descending_triangle.min_trend_slope_percent: raise it to require more clearly falling resistance. Tune descending_triangle.min_r2: raise it to require cleaner support/resistance trend lines. Tune descending_triangle.min_points_per_side: increase it to demand more confirmed touches. Tune descending_triangle.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to keep the pattern close to the latest bar. Tune pattern_reliability.descending_triangle to change its base confidence.
Rising wedge	5	3	60%	+$70.90	+$14.18	76.6	Tune rising_wedge.min_points_per_side: increase it to require more confirmed swing points. Tune rising_wedge.min_r2: raise it to require cleaner converging trend lines. Tune rising_wedge.min_convergence_percent: raise it to demand stronger convergence. Tune rising_wedge.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to require a fresher pattern. Tune pattern_reliability.rising_wedge to change its base confidence.
Triple top	3	1	33.33%	-$33.62	-$11.21	79.0	Sample size is still small. Avoid large changes until at least 5–10 completed trades are available. Low win rate: first review prediction.min_confidence. Raising it will reduce marginal trades across all patterns. Tune the triple_top similarity/tolerance parameters in [triple_top], especially the maximum top difference and minimum pullback/swing requirements. Tune pattern_reliability.triple_top to change its base confidence. If poor trades tend to occur on weak volume, review volume_gate.low_volume_z and volume_gate.max_confidence_boost. If entries are directionally correct but exits are poor, review prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent before changing the pattern detector.
Ascending triangle	1	1	100%	+$77.76	+$77.76	78.7	Sample size is still small. Avoid large changes until at least 5–10 completed trades are available. Strong results: if you want more trades, cautiously lower prediction.min_confidence or slightly relax this pattern’s structural thresholds. Tune ascending_triangle.max_flat_slope_percent: lower it to require flatter resistance. Tune ascending_triangle.min_trend_slope_percent: raise it to require more clearly rising support. Tune ascending_triangle.min_r2: raise it to require cleaner support/resistance trend lines. Tune ascending_triangle.min_points_per_side: increase it to demand more confirmed touches. Tune ascending_triangle.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to keep the pattern closer to the latest bar. Tune pattern_reliability.ascending_triangle to change its base confidence.
Double bottom	1	0	0%	-$79.17	-$79.17	88.7	Sample size is still small. Avoid large changes until at least 5–10 completed trades are available. Low win rate: first review prediction.min_confidence. Raising it will reduce marginal trades across all patterns. Confidence appears too optimistic. Reduce pattern_reliability.double_bottom if that key exists, or tighten the pattern-specific geometry thresholds listed below. Tune double_bottom.max_bottom_difference_percent: lower it to require more similar lows. Tune double_bottom.min_bounce_percent: raise it to require a stronger rebound between bottoms. Tune double_bottom.max_end_distance_percent: lower it to require the second bottom closer to the latest price. Tune pattern_reliability.double_bottom to change the base confidence assigned to this pattern. If poor trades tend to occur on weak volume, review volume_gate.low_volume_z and volume_gate.max_confidence_boost. If entries are directionally correct but exits are poor, review prediction.profit_target_percent and prediction.loss_threshold_percent before changing the pattern detector.

Pattern Combinations

Combinations can reveal whether two or more agreeing patterns perform better than individual signals alone.

Combination	Trades	Wins	Win Rate	Total P/L	Interpretation
Falling wedge	33	19	57.58%	+$284.75	Mixed result. Keep current settings and gather more observations.
Bear flag	14	7	50%	-$5.97	Weak combination. Consider requiring higher individual pattern scores before allowing this combination to trigger a trade.
Double top	9	4	44.44%	+$30.09	Weak combination. Consider requiring higher individual pattern scores before allowing this combination to trigger a trade.
Bull flag	6	1	16.67%	-$160.81	Weak combination. Consider requiring higher individual pattern scores before allowing this combination to trigger a trade.
Rising wedge	5	3	60%	+$70.90	Mixed result. Keep current settings and gather more observations.
Descending triangle	3	2	66.67%	+$71.79	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.
Double top + Triple top	3	1	33.33%	-$33.62	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.
Bear flag + Descending triangle	2	2	100%	+$106.84	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.
Ascending triangle	1	1	100%	+$77.76	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.
Double bottom	1	0	0%	-$79.17	Small sample; collect more trades before tuning around this combination.